METHODOLOGY
This page explains where evidence comes from, what counts, how duplicates are removed, how scores are calculated and how dossier status changes. You do not need to trust Timory. You need to be able to audit it.
§ 01
Sources are not treated as interchangeable. A concrete feature request in a software issue and a founder's promotional launch post carry different evidentiary weight.
| Source | Primary role | What can count |
|---|---|---|
| First-hand pain and spending | Specific experiences, constraints and stated payments | |
| Hacker News | Technical and operating context | Concrete problems and constraints, not broad opinions |
| GitHub Issues | Feature gaps | Missing workflows; routine bugs are excluded |
| Software Recommendations | Explicit search demand | Requests with clear requirements |
| Indie Hackers | Founder context | Attributable customer evidence; launch copy is excluded |
| MicroConf | Long-form context | Attributable customer statements, not general advice |
§ 02
Every excerpt is classified by where the claim comes from. First-hand pain, current spend, explicit willingness to pay and concrete feature requests can affect confidence. Second-hand reports, expert opinion and promotional content remain contextual but do not raise the score.
§ 03
Several excerpts from one post still count as one content item. Repeated posts by one author are discounted. Closely related signals are merged only when they describe the same underlying problem for the same kind of user. This prevents one loud voice from looking like a market.
§ 04
Each factor is calculated from stored evidence. The same evidence produces the same score. The number is a confidence measure for the underlying problem, not a forecast of revenue, market size or founder fit.
§ 05
Candidate records an early pattern. Validating requires stronger independent recurrence. Evidence-backed requires sufficient first-hand and source-diverse evidence. Fading indicates recent activity has weakened. Archived preserves history without presenting the dossier as current.
§ 06
The system first extracts short evidence excerpts, evidence type and source context. Code then deduplicates counts, calculates factors and applies status thresholds. The extraction layer does not decide which business is worth building, and the scoring layer does not invent evidence.
§ 07
IMPORTANT LIMIT
Evidence-backed does not mean worth building
The dossier can support claims that a problem is real, recurring and connected to spending. It cannot establish total market size, customer accessibility, acquisition cost, implementation difficulty or your personal fit. Those decisions remain yours.
PRIVACY
We collect an email address only when you subscribe to a brief or join the waitlist. Anonymous page events are counted without cookies or personal identifiers. Public pages show short excerpts from public sources and link to the original. You can unsubscribe through the link in every email.
TERMS
Timory provides research evidence and monitoring, not investment, legal or business advice. Source content remains the property of its authors and platforms. Public excerpts are intentionally short and linked back to their source. Availability, scoring rules and early-access plans may change as the product develops.