Public Evidence Lab / Dossier O-8038

Payment-backedOPPORTUNITY DOSSIER · O-8038

ROAS declines after PMax updates

Collected sample: 7 independent content items across 1 source families. Known publication dates: 2026-09-26 — 2026-11-03.

First seen 2026-09-26 · Last updated 2026-11-13 · Recalculated daily

20.2
Evidence confidence, not a return forecast
7
Independent source items, deduplicated by post
1
Public source families
1
Payment evidence: current spend or explicit intent
ProblemThe source-linked evidence below documents the recurring problem.
People affectedPeople represented in the linked public discussions.
Named alternativesGoogle Ads Performance Max, Google Ads Smart Bidding, Google PMax, pmax
Collected sample dates · 12 weeks
08-2409-2110-1911-09

These observations describe collected samples, not platform-wide prevalence; they cannot establish whether a problem is widespread or accelerating. Collection scope changed on 09-16 and 09-27; monthly counts must not be read as trends.

Representative evidence

Full evidence chain · 7 items · 7 representative excerpts shown
Payment intent★★★☆☆Current spend

Post title: Low clicks, High CPC

Currently after reverting it back, I’m stuck at 1-…

The public layer keeps only a minimal excerpt. Open the source for full context.

Reddit2026-10-30View source ↗
Product complaint★★★★☆First-hand pain

Post title: Feed-only pmax (low budget) just not performing any more

I have an e-commerce store and my pmax campaigns h…

The public layer keeps only a minimal excerpt. Open the source for full context.

Reddit2026-11-03View source ↗
Pain★★★★☆First-hand pain

Post title: Campaign drop PMax FO

A week went by and I noticed insane poor results f…

The public layer keeps only a minimal excerpt. Open the source for full context.

Reddit2026-10-24View source ↗
Product complaint★★★★☆First-hand pain

Post title: Anyone else seeing their ROAS tank after Google pushed another Smart Bidding update

My campaigns used to hit 4.2x pretty consistently …

The public layer keeps only a minimal excerpt. Open the source for full context.

Reddit2026-10-05View source ↗
Product complaint★★★★☆First-hand pain

Post title: Any tips to help after update?

Pmax campaigns, US for Shopify store. Most campaig…

The public layer keeps only a minimal excerpt. Open the source for full context.

Reddit2026-09-26View source ↗
Pain★★★☆☆First-hand pain

Post title: Massive decline in campaign after the august 17th update

After Aug 17, Google’s own “Review your campaign t…

The public layer keeps only a minimal excerpt. Open the source for full context.

Reddit2026-10-12View source ↗
Product complaint★★☆☆☆First-hand pain

Post title: Seeing ROAS drop since new tRoas change

Anyone else seeing that ROAs dropped significative…

The public layer keeps only a minimal excerpt. Open the source for full context.

Reddit2026-10-10View source ↗

What this evidence does not show yet

This dossier already carries first-hand payment evidence. What it still cannot tell you: market size, how reachable these people are, or what it costs to acquire them.

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Scoring summary

Evidence confidence = strength × evidence volume × source diversity × payment × competition × trend × 10. Counts use independent content items; only first-hand pain, current spend, explicit willingness to pay and concrete feature requests affect the score. Repeated posts by one author are discounted. Scoring and status changes follow deterministic rules.

“Payment-backed” means first-hand payment evidence exists in the record. It does not mean the business is worth building. “Fading” is a recency tag shown alongside any evidence level, not a lower level. Read the full methodology.